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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.